KEY TAKEAWAYS
Expected Vote Share :
BJP – 42.72% (+1.7%)
Congress – 39.63% (-1.26%)
- Shivraj Singh Chauhan still most preferred Chief Minister choice despite dip in Gwalior-Chambal and Baghelkhand region
- BJP to win big in Malwa, Madhya Bharat and Bundelkhand
- Congress leads in Mahakaushal and Gwalior-Chambal region
- Neck to neck contest in Baghelkhand and Nimar region
- INC to dominate ST reserved seats, INC-BJP at par on SC reserved seats, BJP gains in unreserved seats
- BJP suffering losses in districts bordering Purvanchal (Uttar Pradesh) – Rewa, Satna, Singrauli, Sidhi but to sweep 3 big districts of Indore, Ujjain and Sagar
Gwalior-Chambal Region
It is the area bordering Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan. The region of political stalwarts Jyotiraditya Scindia and Narendra Singh Tomar. Congress swept this region in 2018, winning 26 out of 34 seats. BJP is bettering its tally from the last election but the shift of Scindia doesn’t seem to have much impact in its own backyard. Although BJP seems to be gaining in districts of Guna, Morena and Ashoknagar but may still end up way behind Congress in this region.
Bundelkhand Region
Situated in the northern part of Madhya Pradesh, shares boundary with Uttar Pradesh. It is one of the underdeveloped regions of India. BJP seems to be adding on its lead from the last time to almost sweep the region. BJP won 14 out of 26 seats last time. BJP is predicted to win 18 this time which is 70% of the seats of the region. BJP is mainly gaining in Sagar and Damoh. Also maintaining its clean sweep in Tikamgarh.
Baghelkhand
North East of Madhya Pradesh borders Purvanchal of Uttar Pradesh. It is the region north of the Vindhya range. The only region where BJP is sliding down in comparison to the 2018 election. BJP made a powerful show in 2018 winning 24 out of 30 seats in the region. Opinion Poll predict BJP to lose its grip in the region and move down to 17 seats in the 2023 election. BJP is set to lose seats in Rewa, Satna, Singrauli and Sidhi. BJP seems to be losing all the 3 SC seats of the region, which they won last time. But BJP continues to dominate ST reserved seats of the region. Narottam Mishra, the firebrand BJP leader hails from this region.
Mahakaushal
The region of Kamalnath. Lies south of Vindhya range and borders Chhattisgarh and Maharashtra. Region is dominated by the tribals. Out of 38 seats in the region, 13 are reserved for ST. Congress swept ST reserved seats of the region winning 11 out of 13 in last election and is expected to repeat the performance this time too. Gond is the predominant tribe in ST in this region. Congress won Mahakaushal comprehensively 24-13 last time, they are expected to repeat this feat with a decreased margin. Opinion poll predicts Congress winning 21-16 this time.
Madhya Bharat
The area of Shivraj! With Kamalnath set to win his region Mahakaushal for Congress, Shivraj Singh Chauhan is also set to sweep his region of Madhya Bharat. Opinion poll predict BJP winning 26 out of 34 seats in the upcoming assembly election. Also BJP is all set to cleansweep Hosangabad and Sehore district once again. BJP did quite well in SC reserved seats of this region winning 6 out of 7 seats last time, opinion poll suggests that BJP could repeat the same feat again in this region.
Malwa
Malwa is the region north of Vindhya range in western part of Madhya Pradesh bordering Rajasthan. Famous districts of Indore and Ujjain fall in this region. Also the infamous firing on farmers happened in this same region in the district of Mandsaur. BJP completely swept this region in 2013, but Congress bounced back to reduce the lead in 2018. 22-15 in favour of BJP was the scoreline in the last election, Opinion poll suggests BJP will consolidate its lead to make scoreline 28-10 this assembly election. BJP is set to regain its lost ground in Indore and Ujjain districts.
Nimar
Nimar lies south of Malwa, Vindhya range separating it from Malwa. Being the southern west corner of Madhya Pradesh, Nimar shares a boundary with Maharashtra in South and Gujarat in the west. It is a tribal belt, 20 out of the 30 seats in the region are ST reserved seats. Bhils are a predominant tribe in this region, similarly as Gonds were in Mahakaushal belt. Congress did well in the last election winning 20 out of 30 seats in the region. Opinion Poll suggest BJP will bounce to level the numbers 15-15 in the upcoming elections.
Reserved Seats
BJP seems to be slightly bettering its tally in Reserved seats, specially ST reserved seats. But major gains of BJP can be attributed to general seats. In 35 SC reserved seats, BJP is expected to win 19-16 whereas in 47 ST reserved seats, INC will still hold the edge with 27-20. Although INC won 30 ST reserved seats last time
Conclusion
With around 100 days left for the actual election, BJP seems to be leading marginally in the state of Madhya Pradesh. With candidates still to be finalised from both the sides, election could still turn either ways. Few things looks quiet clear, there is neither wave for Shivraj like 2013 nor the resentment like 2018. With the campaigning still to peak on both the side, it could be a close contest to finish.